Generic placeholder image

Current Environmental Management (Discontinued)

Editor-in-Chief

ISSN (Print): 2666-2140
ISSN (Online): 2666-2159

Review Article

A Backward Scenario Planning Overview of the Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran by the End of the Sixth Progress Plan

Author(s): Nima Norouzi* and Mohammad Ali Dehghani

Volume 7 , Issue 1 , 2020

Page: [13 - 35] Pages: 23

DOI: 10.2174/2212717806999200709124810

Price: $65

Abstract

Taking Iran as the 7th Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission source of the world, the country contains a high potential for the emission management plans and studies. As the economy is a significant factor in the greenhouse gas emission, studying the economy and GHG emission integrated relations must be taken into account of every climate change and environmental management plan. This paper investigates the relationships among the economic, demographic, foreign policies, and many other domestic and foreign parameters, which are illustrated by sixth Iranian document over development and GHG emission in three progress scenarios made for this plan. In this paper, all the significant GHG emissions such as CO2, SO2, NOx, hydrocarbons, and CO in the period of 2014-2020 are being studied. As the results show, the number of emissions is directly related to domestic and foreign parameters, which means a better economic status in Iran causes an increase in the number of emissions. The foreign policies are more effective in the Iranian economy and emissions than the domestic policies and parameters. The scenarios and the results show that the Iranian economy and energy systems have a significant potential for efficiency development plans. However, one thing is clear that Iranian emissions will be increased to 800 million tons by the end of the plan period (by 2021). This significant increase in the amount indicates the importance of optimization and efficiency development plans in Iran, which is predicted to control and fix this increment around 3-4%.

Keywords: Energy policy, greenhouse gas, economy and environment, scenario planning, climate change, global warming.

Graphical Abstract
[1]
Kapil Narula B, Reddy S. Three blind men, and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability. Energy 2015; 80: 148-58.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.055.]
[2]
Bompard E, Carpignano A, Erriquez M, Grosso D, Pession M, Profumo F. National energy security assessment in a geopolitical perspective. Energy 2017; 130: 144-54.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.04.108.]
[3]
Sovacool BK. Evaluating energy security in the Asia pacific: Towards a more comprehensive approach. Energy Policy 2011; 39(11): 7472-9.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.008.]
[4]
Cherp A. Defining energy security takes more than asking around. Energy Policy 2012; 48: 841-2.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.016.]
[5]
Baccini L, Urpelainen J. Legislative fractionalization and partisan shifts to the left increase the volatility of public energy R&D expenditures. Energy Policy 2012; 46: 49-57.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.016.]
[6]
Jutamanee Martchamadol S. An aggregated energy security performance indicator. Appl Energy 2013; 103: 653-70.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.10.027.]
[7]
Winzer C. Conceptualizing energy security. Energy Policy 2012; 46: 36-48.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.067.]
[8]
von Hippel D, Suzuki T, Williams JH, Savage T, Hayes P. Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia. Energy Policy 2011; 39(11): 6719-30.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.001.]
[9]
Takase K, Suzuki T. The Japanese energy sector: Current situation, and future paths. Energy Policy 2011; 39(11): 6731-44.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.036.]
[10]
Benjamin K. Evaluating energy security in the Asia pacific: Towards a more comprehensive approach. Energy Policy 2011; 39(11): 7472-9.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.008.]
[11]
Kiriyama E, Kajikawa Y. A multilayered analysis of energy security research and the energy supply process. Appl Energy 2014; 123: 415-23.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.026.]
[12]
Muñoz B, García-Verdugo J, San-Martín E. Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy modelling and planning. Energy 2015; 82: 479-500.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.01.058.]
[13]
Abbaszadeh P, Maleki A, Alipour M, Maman YK. Iran’s oil development scenarios by 2025. Energy Policy 2013; 56: 612-22.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.026]
[14]
Bahrami M, Abbaszadeh P. An overview of renewable energies in Iran. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2013; 24: 198-208.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.03.043]
[15]
BP. BP Energy outlook British petroleum 2017.
[16]
EREC. Greenpeace & 2012 energy revolution 2012 Greenpeace 2012.
[17]
Exxonmobil. Outlook for Energy: A perspective to 2040 Exxonmobil 2017.
[18]
EREC. Greenpeace & energy revolution 2015 Greenpeace 2015.
[19]
Hamrin J, Hummel H, Canapa R. Review of renewable energy in global scenarios. A study commissioned by International Energy Agency, Center for Resource Solutions, San Francisco In: 2007.
[20]
IEA. World Energy Outlook 2020 international energy agency 2020.
[21]
OPEC. World Oil Outlook 2040. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2017.
[22]
Shell. Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050. Shell International BV 2011.
[23]
WBA. Global Bioenergy Statistics 2015. World Bioenergy association 2015.
[24]
WEC. World Energy Outlook 2019. World Energy Council 2019.
[25]
Aboagye S. What drives energy intensity in Ghana? A test of the Environmental Kuznets hypothesis. OPEC Energy Rev 2019; 43: 259-76.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/opec.12155]
[26]
Udemba EN. The triangular nexus causality among economic growth, trade, FDI and Oil Price: time series analyses of Nigeria. OPEC Energy Rev 2019; 43: 470-91.
[27]
Kim M-K, Kim D-W. Leading and lagging natural gas markets between Asia and Europe. OPEC Energy Rev 2019; 43: 383-95.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/opec.12163]
[28]
Longe AE, Muhammad S, Ajayi PI, Omitogun O. Oil price, trade openness, current account balances and the official exchange rate in Nigeria. OPEC Energy Rev 2019; 43: 446-69.
[29]
Cooper JC. Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: Estimates for 23 countries. OPEC Review 2003; 27: 1-8.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0076.00121]
[30]
Lescaroux F, Mignon V. On the influence of oil prices on economic activity and other macroeconomic and financial variables*. OPEC Energy Review 2008; 32: 343-80.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2009.00157.x]
[31]
Hassani H, Silva ES. Big Data: A big opportunity for the petroleum and petrochemical industry. OPEC Energy Rev 2018; 42: 74-89.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/opec.12118]
[32]
Taghizadeh Hesary F, Yoshino N. Monetary policies and oil price determination. OPEC Energy Rev 2014; 38: 1-20.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/opec.12021]
[33]
Moshiri S. Oil price shocks in oil‐exporting countries. OPEC Energy Rev 2015; 39: 222-46.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/opec.12050]
[34]
Norouzi N, Soori M. Energy, environment, water, and land-use Nexus based evaluation of the global Green building standards. Water-Energy Nexus 2020.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wen.2020.10.001]
[35]
Norouzi N, Fani M, Ziarani ZK. The fall of oil age: A scenario planning approach over the last peak oil of human history by 2040. J Petrol Sci Eng 2020; 188106827
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2019.106827.]
[36]
Winslett G. Substitutability, securitisation and hydro-hegemony: Ontological and strategic sequencing in shared river relations. Conflict Secur Dev 2015; 3: 283-309.
[37]
Balli E, Çatik AN, Nugent JB. Time-varying impact of oil shocks on trade balances: Evidence using the TVP-VAR model. Energy 2020; 119377
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119377]]
[38]
Alfalih AA, Bel Hadj T. Foreign direct investment determinants in an oil abundant host country: Short and long-run approach for Saudi Arabia. Resour Policy 2020; 66101616
[39]
Bramstoft R, Alonso AP, Karlsson K, Kofoed-Wiuff A, Münster M. STREAM-an energy scenario modelling tool. Energy Strategy Rev 2018; 21: 62-70.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.04.001.]
[40]
Xiao M. Sonja Simon, Thomas Pregger. Scenario analysis of energy system transition - A case study of two coastal metropolitan regions, eastern China. Energy Strategy Rev 2019; 26100423
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100423.]
[41]
Oberle S, Elsland R. Are open access models able to assess today’s energy scenarios? Energy Strategy Rev 2019; 26100396
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100396.]
[42]
Junne T, Xiao M, Xu L, Wang Z, Jochem P, Pregger T. How to assess the quality and transparency of energy scenarios: Results of a case study. Energy Strategy Rev 2019; 26100380
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100380.]
[43]
Droste-Franke B, Voge M, Kanngießer A. Achieving transparency and robustness of regional energy scenarios by using morphological fields in inter- and transdisciplinary project groups. Energy Strategy Rev 2020; 27100430
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100430.]
[44]
Böhringer C, Rutherford TF. Combining bottom-up and top-down. Energy Econ 2008; 30: 574-96.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.03.004]
[45]
Endo A, Burnett K, Orencio PM, et al. Methods of the water-energy-food Nexus. Water 2015; 7(10): 5806-30.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w7105806]
[46]
Kalair AR, Abas K, Ul Hasan Q, Kalair E, Kalair A, Khan N. Water, energy and food nexus of Indus Water Treaty: Water governance. Water-Energy Nexus 2019; 2(1): 10-24.
[47]
Mohtar RH, Lawford R. Present and future of the water-energy-food Nexus and the role of the community of practice. J Environ Stud Sci 2016; 6(1): 192-9.
[48]
Feng K, Chapagain A, Suh S, Pfister S, Hubacek K. Comparison of bottom-up and top-down approaches to calculating the water footprints of nations. Econ Syst Res 2011; 23: 371-85.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2011.638276]
[49]
Flessa H, Ruser R, Dörsch P, et al. Integrated evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) from two farming systems in southern Germany. Agric Ecosyst Environ 2002; 91: 175-89.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00234-1]
[50]
Selby J, Hoffmann C. Beyond scarcity: Rethinking water, climate change and conflict in the Sudans. Glob Environ Change 2014; 29: 360-70.
[51]
Katz D, Fischhendler I. Spatial and temporal dynamics of linkage strategies in Arab-Israeli water negotiations. Polit Geogr 2011; 30(1): 13-24.
[52]
Phillips DJH, Attili S, McCaffrey S, Murray JS. The Jordan River Basin: 2. Potential future allocations to the Co-riparians. Water Int 2007; 32(1): 39-62.
[53]
Podesta J, Ogden P. The security implications of climate change. TWQ 2008; 31(1): 115-38.
[54]
Aggestam K, Sundell-Eklund A. Situating water in peacebuilding: revisiting the Middle East peace process. Water Int 2014; 39(1): 10-22.
[55]
Patsiaouras G, Saren M, Fitchett JA. The marketplace of life? An exploratory study of the commercialization of water resources through the lens of macromarketing. J Macromark 2015; 35(1): 23-35.
[56]
The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture. Rome, Italy: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2011.
[57]
Bazilian M, Rogner H, Howells M, et al. Considering the energy, water and food nexus: Towards an integrated modelling approach. Energy Policy 2011; 39: 7896-906.
[58]
Rasul G. Managing the food, water, and energy nexus for achieving the sustainable development goals in South Asia. Environ Dev 2016; 18: 14-25.
[59]
Scott CA, Kurian M, Wescoat J. L. Jr. The waterenergy-food nexus: Enhancing adaptive capacity to complex global challenges. In Governing the Nexus; Springer: Berlin, Germnay In: 2015; 16: pp. 15-38.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12222]
[60]
Schreiner B, Baleta H. Broadening the lens: A regional perspective on water, food and energy integration in SADC. Aquat Procedia 2015; 5: 90-103.
[61]
Garcia DJ, You F. The water-energy-food nexus and process systems engineering: A new focus. Comput Chem Eng 2016; 91: 49-67.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2016.03.003]
[62]
Sebitosi A, Okou R. Re-thinking the power transmission model for sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Policy 2010; 38: 1448-54.
[63]
Naik PK. Water crisis in Africa: Myth or reality? Int J Water Resour Dev 2017; 33: 326-39.
[64]
Van Houtum H. The geopolitics of borders and boundaries. Geopolitics 2005; 10: 672-9.
[65]
Mohtar RH, Daher B. Water-energy-food nexus framework for facilitating multi-stakeholder dialogue. Water Int 2016; 41: 655-61.
[66]
Mohtar RH, Lawford R. Present and future of the water-energy-food Nexus and the role of the community of practice. J Environ Stud Sci 2016; 6(1): 192-9.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13412-016-0378-5]
[67]
Kalair AR, Abas N, Hasan QU, Kalair E, Kalair A, Khan N. Water, energy and food nexus of Indus Water Treaty: Water governance. Water-Energy Nexus 2019; 2(1): 10-24.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wen.2019.04.001.]
[68]
Pan S-Y, Seth W, Aaron I, Packman , et al. Cooling water use in thermoelectric power generation and its associated challenges for addressing water-energy Nexus. Water-Energy Nexus 2018; 1(1): 26-41.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wen.2018.04.002.]
[69]
Mandelli S, Barbieri J, Mattarolo L, Colombo E. Sustainable energy in Africa: A comprehensive data and policies review. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2014; 37: 656-86.
[70]
Tehrani SSM, Saffar-Avval M, Kalhori SB, Mansoori Z, Sharif M. Hourly energy analysis and feasibility study of employing a thermocline TES system for an integrated CHP and DH network. Energy Convers Manage 2013; 68: 281-92.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2013.01.020.]
[71]
Wu CB, Huang GH, Xin BG, Chen JK. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions’ anti-driving effect on Qingdao’s energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part I: Carbon emissions peak value prediction. J Clean Prod 2018; 172: 466-74.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.216.]
[72]
Yan Q, Wang Y, Li Z, et al. Coordinated development of thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: Evidence from decomposition and scenario analysis for carbon dioxide emission. J Clean Prod 2019; 232: 1402-17.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.256.]
[73]
Simon H Roberts, Colin J Axon, Nigel H Goddard. Modelling socio-economic and energy data to generate business-as-usual scenarios for carbon emissions. J Clean Prod 2019; 207: 980-97.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.029.]
[74]
Sun Z, Liu Y, Yu Y. China’s carbon emission peak pre-2030: Exploring multi-scenario optimal low-carbon behaviors for China’s regions. J Clean Prod 2019; 231: 963-79.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.159.]
[75]
Wang S, Zhao Y, Thomas W. Carbon emissions embodied in China-Australia trade: A scenario analysis based on input-output analysis and panel regression models. J Clean Prod 2019; 220: 721-31.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.071.]
[76]
Niu D, Wang K, Wu J, et al. Can China achieve its 2030 carbon emissions commitment? Scenario analysis based on an improved general regression neural network. J Clean Prod 2020; 243118558
[77]
Yousefi-Sahzabi A, Sasaki K, Yousefi H, Sugai Y. CO2 emission and economic growth of Iran. Mitig Adapt Strategies Glob Change 2011; 16: 63.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-010-9252-z]
[78]
Algharaib M, Al-Soof NA. Economical evaluation of CO2-EOR projects in the Middle East. Petrol Sci Technol 2010; 28(2): 198-217.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10916460802706471]
[79]
Apergis N, Payne J. CO2 emissions, energy usage and output in Central America. Energy Policy 2009; 37: 3282-6.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.048]
[80]
Abdi H, Shahbazitabar M, Mohammadi-Ivatloo B. Food, Energy and Water Nexus: A Brief Review of Definitions, Research, and Challenges. Inventions 2020; 5: 56.https://unstats.un.org/Unsd/energy/ires/default.htm
[81]
Liu J, Li Y, Li X. Identifying optimal security management policy for water-energy-food nexus system under stochastic and fuzzy conditions. Water 2020; 12: 3268.
[82]
Myers IB, McCaulley MH. Manual: A Guide to the Development and Use of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. 2nd ed. Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologist Press 1985; p. 52.
[83]
Miller KD, Waller GH. Scenarios, real options and integrated risk management. Long Range Plann 2003; 36: 93-107.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0024-6301(02)00205-4]
[84]
Roje T, Sáez D, Muñoz C, Daniele L. Energy-water management system based on predictive control applied to the water-food-energy nexus in rural communities. Appl Sci 2020; 10: 7723.
[85]
Ming-Chih T, Chien-Chih S. Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan, Accident Analysis and Prevention. Accid Anal Prev 2004; 36: 683-90.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2003.05.001]
[86]
Mohammadnejad M, Ghazvini M, Mahlia TMI, Andriyana A. A review on energy scenario and sustainable energy in Iran. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2011; 15(9): 4652-8.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2011.07.087]
[87]
Mohtadi H. Environment, growth and optimal policy design. J Public Econ 1996; 63(1): 119-40.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(95)01562-0]
[88]
Makkonenetal M, et al. Competition in the European electricity markets - outcomes of a Delphi study. Energy Policy 2012; 44: 431-40.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.014]
[89]
Pillkahn U. Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development. New York: John Wiley and Sons 2008; p. 171.
[90]
Alizadeh R, Lund PR, Beynaghi A, Abolghasemi M, Maknoon R. An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2016; 104: 162-71.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.030]
[91]
Sukhwani V, Shaw R, Deshkar S, Mitra BK, Yan W. Role of smart cities in optimizing water-energy-food nexus: Opportunities in Nagpur, India. Smart Cities 2020; 3: 1266-92.
[92]
Nhamo L, Ndlela B, Mpandeli S, Mabhaudhi T. The water-energy-food nexus as an adaptation strategy for achieving sustainable livelihoods at a local level. Sustainability 2020; 12: 8582.
[93]
Higgins CW, Abou Najm M. An organizing principle for the water-energy-food nexus. Sustainability 2020; 12: 8135.
[94]
Smulders S, Gradus R. Pollution Abatement and Long-term Growth. Eur J Polit Econ 1996; 12(3): 505-32.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(96)00013-4]
[95]
Reibnitz V. Ute Scenario Techniques. Germany: McGraw-Hill 1988; pp. 102-10.
[96]
Weimer-Jehle W. Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2006; 73(4): 334-61.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.06.005]
[97]
Ibrik I. Micro-grid solar photovoltaic systems for rural development and sustainable agriculture in Palestine. Agronomy 2020; 10: 1474.
[98]
Stylianopoulou KG, Papapostolou CM, Kondili EM. Water-energy-food nexus: A focused review on integrated methods. Environ Sci Proc 2020; 2: 46.
[99]
Vaghefi SA, Keykhai M, Jahanbakhshi F, et al. The future of extreme climate in Iran. Sci Rep 2019; 9(1): 1464.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38071-8] [PMID: 30728418]
[100]
Hamidov A, Helming K. Sustainability considerations in water-energy-food nexus research in irrigated agriculture. Sustainability 2020; 12: 6274.
[101]
Heitmann F, Pahl-Wostl C, Engel S. Requirements based design of environmental system of systems: Development and application of a nexus design framework. Sustainability 2019; 11: 3464.
[102]
Rodríguez-de-Francisco JC, Duarte-Abadía B, Boelens R. Payment for ecosystem services and the water-energy-food nexus: Securing resource flows for the affluent? Water 2019; 11: 1143.
[103]
Kiani B, Pourfakhraei MA. A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector. Energy Policy 2010; 38(12): 7764-74.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.08.036]
[104]
Azadi AK, Yarmohammad MH. Analysis of Iran’s crude oil export future capacity. Energy Policy 2011; 39(6): 3316-26.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.023]
[105]
Lahmouri M, Drewes JE, Gondhalekar D. Analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in centralized and decentralized water reclamation with resource recovery strategies in Leh Town, Ladakh, India, and potential for their reduction in context of the water-energy-food nexus. Water 2019; 11: 906.
[106]
Fan C, Lin C-Y, Hu M-C. Empirical framework for a relative sustainability evaluation of urbanization on the water-energy-food nexus using simultaneous equation analysis. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2019; 16: 901.
[107]
Tan AHP, Yap EH. Energy security within Malaysia’s water-energy-food nexus-A systems approach. Systems 2019; 7: 14.
[108]
Norouzi N, Kalantari G. The sun food-water-energy nexus governance model a case study for Iran. Water-Energy Nexus 2020; 3: 72-80.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wen.2020.05.005]
[109]
Silberglitt R, Kimmel S. Energy scenarios for Southeast Asia. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2015; 101: 251-62.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.04.010]
[110]
Bentley R, Bentley Y. Explaining the price of oil 1971-2014: The need to use reliable data on oil discovery and to account for ‘mid-point’ peak. Energy Policy 2015; 86: 880-90.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.028]
[111]
Ebrahimi M, Ghasabani NC. Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic Hubbert Model. J Petrol Sci Eng 2015; 133: 818-23.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2015.04.010]
[112]
Cunado J, Jo S, de Garcia FP. Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies. Energy Policy 2015; 86: 867-79.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.05.004]
[113]
Grunwald A. Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment. Futures 2011; 43(8): 820-30.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.024]
[114]
Schoemaker PJH. When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration. J Forecast 1991; 10(6): 549-64.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980100602]
[115]
Schoemaker PJH. Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strateg Manage J 1993; 14(3): 193-213.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250140304]
[116]
Jetter AJ. Fuzzy cognitive maps for engineering and technology management: What works in practice? 2006 Technology Management for the Global Future - PICMET 2006 Conference. Istanbul, Turkey, July 2006.
[117]
Alhajeri NS, Dannoun M, Alrashed A, et al. Environmental and economic impacts of increased utilization of natural gas in the electric power generation sector: Evaluating the benefits and trade-offs of fuel switching. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2019; 71102969
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2019.102969.]
[118]
Chávez-Rodríguez M, Varela D, Rodrigues F, et al. The role of LNG and unconventional gas in the future natural gas markets of Argentina and Chile. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2017; 45: 584-98.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2017.06.014.]
[119]
Di Lullo G, Oni AO, Gemechu E, Kumar A. Developing a greenhouse gas life cycle assessment framework for natural gas transmission pipelines. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2020; 75103136
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2019.103136.]
[120]
Liu L, ByongJae Ryu, Zhilei Sun , et al. Monitoring and research on environmental impacts related to marine natural gas hydrates: Review and future perspective. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2019; 65: 82-107.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2019.02.007.]
[121]
Chávez-Rodríguez MF, Garaffa R, Andrade G. Can Bolivia keep its role as a major natural gas exporter in South America? J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2016; 33: 717-30.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.06.008.]]
[122]
Hafezi R. AmirNaser Akhavan, Saeed Pakseresht. Projecting plausible futures for Iranian oil and gas industries: Analyzing of historical strategies. J Nat Gas Sci Eng 2017; 39: 15-27.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.12.028.]
[123]
Zhang M, Luis F. Variable rate and pressure integral solutions to the nonlinear gas diffusivity equation in unconventional systems. Fuel 2019; 235: 1100-13.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2018.08.065.]
[124]
Lerner A, Brear MJ, Lacey JS, Gordon RL, Webley PA. Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) of low emission methanol and Di-Methyl Ether (DME) derived from natural gas. Fuel 2018; 220: 871-8.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2018.02.066.]
[125]
Maggio G, Cacciola G. When will oil, natural gas, and coal peak? Fuel 2012; 98: 111-23.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2012.03.021.]
[126]
Akinola TE, Oko E, Wang M. Study of CO2 removal in natural gas process using mixture of ionic liquid and MEA through process simulation. Fuel 2019; 236: 135-46.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2018.08.152.]
[127]
Putna O, Janošťák F, Pavlas M. Greenhouse gas credits from integrated waste-to-energy plant. J Clean Prod 2020.122408
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122408.]
[128]
Dou X. Joshua Linn. How do US passenger vehicle fuel economy standards affect new vehicle purchases? J Environ Econ Manage 2020; 102102332
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102332.]
[129]
Yang X, Lou F, Sun M, Wang R, Wang Y. Study of the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the economic growth of Russia based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Appl Energy 2017; 193: 162-73.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.02.034.]
[130]
Ciacci L, Fishman T, Elshkaki A, Graedel TE, Vassura I, Passarini F. Exploring future copper demand, recycling and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-28. Glob Environ Change 2020; 63102093
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102093.]
[131]
Forster J, Vaughan NE, Gough C, Lorenzoni I, Chilvers J. Mapping feasibilities of greenhouse gas removal: Key issues, gaps and opening up assessments. Glob Environ Change 2020; 63102073
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102073.]
[132]
Kim I, Kim J, Lee J. Dynamic analysis of well-to-wheel electric and hydrogen vehicles greenhouse gas emissions: Focusing on consumer preferences and power mix changes in South Korea. Appl Energy 2020; 260114281
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114281.]
[133]
Gao F, Li B, Ren B, Zhao B, Liu P, Zhang J. Effects of residue management strategies on greenhouse gases and yield under double cropping of winter wheat and summer maize. Sci Total Environ 2019; 687: 1138-46.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.146.]
[134]
Ehrenberger SI, Dunn JB, Jungmeier G, et al. An international dialogue about electric vehicle deployment to bring energy and greenhouse gas benefits through 2030 on a well-to-wheels basis. Transport Res D-Tr E 2019; 74: 245-54.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.07.027.]
[135]
Yang Q, Wei Z, Zhou H, Li J, Yang H, Chen H. Greenhouse gas emission analysis of biomass moving-bed pyrolytic polygeneration systems based on aspen plus and hybrid LCA in China. Energy Procedia 2019; 158: 3690-5.
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.890.]
[136]
Xu J, Huang Y, Shi Y, Deng Y. Supply chain management approach for greenhouse and acidifying gases emission reduction towards construction materials industry: A case study from China. J Clean Prod 2020; 258120521
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120521.]
[137]
Solarin SA, Bello MO. The impact of shale gas development on the US economy: Evidence from a quantile: Autoregressive distributed lag model. Energy 2020; 205118004
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118004.]
[138]
Li C, Xiong Y, Huang Q, Xu X, Huang G. Impact of irrigation and fertilization regimes on greenhouse gas emissions from soil of mulching cultivated maize (Zea mays L.) field in the upper reaches of Yellow River, China. J Clean Prod 2020; 259120873
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120873.]
[139]
Nevrlý V, Šomplák R, Putna O, Pavlas M. Location of mixed municipal waste treatment facilities: Cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. J Clean Prod 2019; 239118003
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118003.]
[140]
Jonatan J, Gómez V, Patrick J. Powertrain technologies and their impact on greenhouse gas emissions in key car markets. Transport Res D-Tr E 2020; 80102214
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.102214.]
[141]
Al-Saidi M, Saliba S. Water, energy and food supply security in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries-A risk perspective. Water 2019; 11: 455.

Rights & Permissions Print Export Cite as
© 2022 Bentham Science Publishers | Privacy Policy