Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

Author(s): Richard Cimler*, Hana Tomaskova, Jitka Kuhnova, Ondrej Dolezal, Pavel Pscheidl, Kamil Kuca

Journal Name: Current Alzheimer Research

Volume 15 , Issue 8 , 2018

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Background: Alzheimer’s disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact.

Methods: Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer’s disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared.

Results: The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed.

Conclusion: In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, population modeling, system dynamics, agent-based model, numerical model, population prediction.

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Article Details

Year: 2018
Page: [789 - 797]
Pages: 9
DOI: 10.2174/1567205015666180202094551
Price: $65

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