Quantitative Risk Estimates of Space Dangers

Abstract

The purpose of this chapter was to attempt to quantify as closely as possible the risk posed to spacefarers and to the planet Earth by space dangers. The empirical record of space objects striking the Earth was examined, specifically with respect to NEOs, asteroids, meteors and comets. Potential threats from supernovas, black holes, space debris and gamma rays were also quantified. An overall aggregate risk assessment was provided.

Keywords: Aggregate, Chevrolet Malibu, Claxton, Georgia, Comet IRASAroki- Adcock, Defense Support Program, Infra Red Astronomy Satellite, Los Alamos, Loss of Crew and Vehicle, Peerskill, New York, Pultusk, Poland, Sikhote-Alin Mountains, Sprucefield, Northern Ireland, Stony Tunguska River, Sumava, Czechoslovakia, U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Space and Astronautics, 1993 KA2, 2012 D12.