The occurrence of epidemic avian influenza (EAI) not only hinders the development of a
country's agricultural economy, but also seriously affects human beings’ life. Recently, the information
collected from Google Trends has been increasingly used to predict various epidemics. In this study,
using the relevant keywords in Google Trends as well as the multiple linear regression approach, a
model was developed to predict the occurrence of epidemic avian influenza. It was demonstrated by
rigorous cross-validations that the success rates achieved by the new model were quite high, indicating
the predictor will become a very useful tool for hospitals and health providers.
Keywords: Google trends, H5N2, avian influenza, prediction model, multiple line regression model, Chou’s intuitive metrics.
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