Forecasting Gold Prices Series in Turkey by the Forecast Combination
Pp. 108-117 (10)
Cagdas Hakan Aladag, Erol Eǧrioǧlu and Cem Kadilar
Forecast combination is a method used for obtaining more accurate forecasts. Forecast
combination consists of the combination of forecasts obtained from different models with various
methods. There are several types of forecast combination in the forecasting literature. In this study,
various fuzzy time series approaches are applied to Turkey’s daily highest gold prices series and
forecasts obtained from these approaches are combined with variance covariance method (VCM), mean
square forecast error method (MSFE) and artificial neural networks (ANN) approach. Results obtained
from all of these methods are analyzed and the optimal forecast technique for Turkey’s daily highest
gold prices series is determined.
Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Forecast combination, Fuzzy time series.
Hacettepe University, Faculty of Science, Department of Statistics, 06800, Ankara, Turkey